Friday, June 29, 2007

Iran, Through Iraq?

The recent WSJ editorial that outlined how a U.S. withdraw from Iraq could broaden the Middle East conflict prompted me to wonder whether that was part of the plan all along, particularly with regard to Iran. If Iraq becomes a lasting success story (as is still possible), then that significantly marginalizes Iran, and war with the burgeoning nuclear power is less likely. If one of the few countries in the region that is [proto-]democratic and not overwhelmingly anti-American falters, the resulting boost for Iranian influence would also boost U.S. grounds for a war against Iran. With Iraq effectively neutralized by war and American troops freed for a new conflict, war with Iran would become highly probable. So Iraq presents a win-win opportunity over Iran: Succeed with one, gain diplomatic advantage against the other; fail with one, gain militaristic advantage against the other. Success is ideal, but there are a growing number of Pontius Pilates in D.C. who would rather do what is popular than do what is just. So barring a restored interest in saving Iraq, I suspect that bombs will drop on Iran a few months after America abandons the Iraqis. (Count this as another reason why I oppose abandoning the Iraqis...)

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